Eiren published their annual list of movie industry statistics today, around which I've written my usual big summary for Screen. Please see the article here (don't forget, Asia news is free).
I'm quite impressed with my forecasting abilities. Last year in Screen and on my Midnight Eye Top 10 of 2008 list (come on, guys!) I predicted a 60-40 split in market share between local films and imports: the final figures were 59.5% to 40.5%. I also predicted an overall gross of 195 billion yen in my upcoming piece in the March edition of Japan Close-Up (see my Dec. 19 entry). The final tally was 194.84 billion.
I suppose "predict" is the wrong word since I have to follow these numbers all year, but you'll now see the local media here go into a frenzy over how successful Japanese films were. Too bad overall box office and admissions in Japan remain as flat as a pancake while screen count dangerously increases...
9 comments:
hang your head in shame. 0.5% out. shocking.
what's the general concensus (if there is one) about how
interested the Japanese are in current (past?) domestic
output? I get a sense it's largely dismissive, for similar
reasons that non-domestic markets might be...
Since I first came here in 1998 they've become a hell of lot more interested -- look at the numbers. Anecdotal but many people use to say to me "I don't watch Japanese films". They don't often say that anymore and genuinely know what's out there (even if they don't have time to see it.)
But a large part of it is a combination of declining interest in HW product and the powerful lure of films based on existing mega-properties. Viewers almost feel like they have to remain loyal to the franchise. Of course, there are original hits that break that mould, but they're few and far between.
I wonder how American audiences would react if they had to go see a movie to find out what happened after the final cliffhanger of 24. Hmm.
...i was thinking it was this TV / Manga trend that was more responsible. if you (anyone) scan(s) news pages in japanese, they're dominated by talk of american films... and if you look at how anything other that latest-greatest is dismissed, you can see how the japanese market's so good at producing pop culture it simply doesn't need to be as good at consuming (and promoting) it; perhaps?!
I go through probably 30 different Japanese news sources a day. They're not dominated by American movies, they're dominated by news of actors, singers and other tarento, predominantly Japanese, followed by HW, Chinese, Korean etc. But the non-Japanese stuff doesn't really have legs because people aren't living with those names every day. It's all about chimeido.
I'm looking forward to seeing your top 10 of 2008. I've seen some official tops (JapanTimes, KineJun), and it's quite boring, without surprises. I mean, for example Kabei or Ponyo are good, but it'd be cool to know some less-known but good films. Or maybe, it just doesn't exist?!
They exist! My Top 10 and honorable mentions list contains everything from no-budget video films, to art house work to studio films.
Some of my non-Japanese favourites are from France, too.
I think it's the best collection since I started doing them in 2003!
0.5 %!! You continue to blow me away, Jason! Keeping my fingers crossed that TOKYO SONATA made it on your list... Hehe :)
JG> Glad to read that! Let's hope Midnight Eye will soon publish the tops of 2008!
Btw, did the japanese press say something about 2009, knowing the results of the box office 2008?
I don't speak japanese, so I don't really know, but it ''seems'' analysis are quite rare. You said the media were *happy*; no journalists pointed out the problems of this situation?
I don't speak japanese, so I don't really know, but it ''seems'' analysis are quite rare. You said the media were *happy*; no journalists pointed out the problems of this situation?
Well, I was predicting the media would gush over the domestic market share/earnings like they did two years ago when J-films grabbed the majority in '06. It was a pretty blind celebration (which I got swept up in on here, too) but most of the articles this time round (here, there) are more balanced than I expected. It's hard to ignore steady (if small) drops in overall BO and admissions each year. I think the general economic situation doesn't help. And yet, the bottom line is that more people are going to see Japanese films, mainly the big stuff.
Marie, of course Tokyo Sonata is up there!
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